Brief communication: The effect of submerged vents on probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout

Abstract

Many volcanic systems are partially or entirely submerged, implying that vents may open underwater. The effect of submerged vents on probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout has always been neglected, introducing potentially uncontrolled biases. We present a strategy to quantify the effect of submerged vents on PVHA for tephra fallout, based on a simplified empirical model in which the efficiency of tephra production decreases as a function of the water depth above the eruptive vent. The method is then applied to Campi Flegrei caldera, comparing its results to those of two reference end-member models and their statistical mixing.