Climate response to imposed solar radiation reductions in high latitudes

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Abstract

With human-induced climate change leading to amplified warming in high latitudes, mitigation alone is unlikely to be rapid enough to prevent significant, even irreversible, impacts. Model simulations in which solar insolation was arbitrarily reduced poleward of 51, 61, or 71 latitude in one or both hemispheres not only cooled those regions, but also drew energy from lower latitudes, exerting a cooling influence over much of the particular hemisphere in which the reduction was imposed. The simulations, conducted using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's CAM3.1 atmospheric model coupled to a slab ocean, indicated that high-latitude reductions in absorbed solar radiation have a significantly larger cooling influence than solar reductions of equivalent magnitude spread evenly over the Earth. This amplified influence occurred primarily because concentrated high-latitude reductions in solar radiation led to increased sea ice fraction and surface albedo, thereby amplifying the energy deficit at the top of the atmosphere as compared to the response for an equivalent reduction in solar radiation spread evenly over the globe. Reductions in incoming solar radiation in one polar region (either north or south) resulted in increased poleward energy transport during that hemisphere's cold season and shifted the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) away from that pole, whereas comparable solar reductions in both polar regions resulted in increased poleward energy transport, but tended to leave the ITCZ approximately in place. Together, these results suggest that, until emissions reductions are sufficient to limit the warming influence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, polar reductions in solar radiation, if they could be efficiently and effectively implemented, warrant further research as an approach to moderating the early stages of both high-latitude and global warming. © 2013 Author(s).

Figures

  • Table 1. Global and regional mean reductions in solar insolation and climate sensitivity for the various perturbation simulations. The baseline simulation with doubled CO2 had a concentration of 560 ppm and a solar constant of 1366 Wm −2. Details of the calculations of climate sensitivity are described in Appendix B.
  • Fig. 2. Model-calculated changes in annual-mean surface air temperature (in Kelvins) from the doubled-CO2 baseline as a result of imposing northern high-latitude solar reductions of 3 different latitudinal extents on a CO2 doubled climate. From the top, the solar reductions are 25 % north of 71◦ N, 10 % north of 61◦ N, and 6 % north of 51◦ N. The hatching, mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, covers regions where there is no statistically significant effect, as explained in the caption for Fig. 1.
  • Fig. 1. Model-calculated changes in climatological annual-mean surface air temperature (in Kelvins) in response to specified changes in radiative forcing. The top figure shows the temperature change for 2×CO2 as compared with 1×CO2, indicating that the warming in high latitudes is 2–3 times the warming in low latitudes. The middle figure shows the temperature change that results from imposing a globally uniform reduction in insolation of 1.8 % starting from the 2×CO2 baseline, showing changes in high latitudes considerably larger than in low latitudes. The bottom figure shows the remaining temperature change as a result of imposing the CO2 doubling and a 1.8 % global reduction in insolation. The hatching indicates areas where the changes are not statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level using a modified Student’s t test for autocorrelated data (Zwiers and von Storch, 1995).
  • Fig. 3. Latitudinal variation of the change in temperature (in Kelvins) induced by the set of the ten global and polar solar reduction simulations. The plot is linear in latitude to provide improved resolution in high latitudes; an equal area weighting would show that the simulations with polar reductions in solar radiation are more tightly restricted to polar regions and that the global reduction cools a much larger fraction of the Earth than the polar reductions.
  • Fig. 5. Monthly variation in Arctic sea ice extent (in millions of km2) for 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 and the calculated increments in Arctic sea ice that would result from a 1.8 % reduction in global solar radiation or from 6 % reductions in solar radiation from 51◦ latitude to the pole in the Northern, Southern, or both Hemispheres, showing that reducing solar radiation by these amounts would, as intended, have the effect of essentially restoring Arctic sea ice cover.
  • Fig. 6. Monthly variation in Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions of km2) for 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 and the calculated increments in Antarctic sea ice that would result from a 1.8 % reduction in global solar radiation or from 6 % reductions in solar radiation from 51◦ latitude to the pole in the Northern, Southern, or both Hemispheres, showing that reducing solar radiation by these amounts would, as intended, have the effect of essentially restoring Antarctic sea ice cover, perhaps even overcompensating.
  • Fig. 4. Latitudinal variation of the temperature change (in Kelvins) remaining after imposing both a CO2 doubling and the ten different extents of solar reduction considered in this paper. The plot is linear in latitude to provide improved resolution in high latitudes; an equal area weighting would show that counter-balancing of the warming in the simulations with polar reductions in solar radiation are more tightly restrained to the high latitudes where the reductions were imposed, and that a global reduction in solar radiation is required to return mid- and low-latitude temperature increases to near their 1×CO2 values.
  • Fig. 7. Latitudinal distribution of the differences in precipitation (in mm day−1) for June-July-August (JJA – top panels) and DecemberJanuary-February (DJF – bottom panels) that would result after imposing both a CO2 doubling and solar reductions of either 1.8 % globally or 6 % reductions in solar radiation from 51◦ latitude to the pole in the Northern, Southern, or both Hemispheres. The left column shows the effect of the solar reductions from the 2×CO2 simulation and the right column from the 1×CO2 baseline.

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CITATION STYLE

APA

MacCracken, M. C., Shin, H. J., Caldeira, K., & Ban-Weiss, G. A. (2013). Climate response to imposed solar radiation reductions in high latitudes. Earth System Dynamics, 4(2), 301–315. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-301-2013

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