Hindsight bias, Conjunctive explanations and causal attribution

Abstract

Extending the reasoning of the causal model theory of the hindsight bias, the effect of multiple antecedents as explanations of an event is investigated. On the basis of the conjunction effect and the assumption of a causal mechanism model of attribution the following hypotheses are examined: (1) People will evaluate an outcome as more plausible and more inevitable when two antecedents belonging to the same causal mechanism are available. (2) In case of two antecedents obeying different mechanisms the outcome will be perceived as equally or even less plausible and less inevitable compared to single-antecedent conditions. Results of two experiments confirmed the hypotheses. They are interpreted as evidence for a causal model theory of the hindsight bias and a causal mechanism account of attribution.