Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

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Abstract

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780-1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2-3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top-down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom-up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8-15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone. © Author(s) 2014.

Figures

  • Fig. 1. Model forcing data over the Dalton Minimum (AD 1780–1840). (a) Spectral solar irradiance in the UV-C at 180 nm<λ< 250 nm. (b) Spectral solar irradiance at λ> 250 nm. (c) Solar modulation potential following Steinhilber et al. (2008). (d) Ground-level TSI, showing anomalies relative to the 1780 unperturbed values. (e) Greenhouse gas mixing ratios for CO2, CH4 and N2O. (f) Anthropogenic and natural CO and NOx emissions from fossil fuel burning. Blue vertical lines highlight the years in which a volcanic eruption occurred.
  • Table 2. Dalton minimum experiments: “const” denotes constant 1780 conditions. “bckgrd” denotes background aerosol emissions and volcanic emissions off. “trans” denotes transient forcing. “Ioniz.” stands for the parametrization for SPE, LEE and GCR.
  • Table 1. Stratospheric aerosol optical depths at 550 nm derived from volcanic aerosol simulations (Arfeuille et al., 2014) using ice core measurements from Gao et al. (2008).
  • Fig. 2. (a) Ensemble mean of 2 m temperature differences, averaged over the 1805–1825 period for the ALL run. (b) Same for the “Bottom-Up” run. (c) Same for the VOLC run. Only areas that are significant at the 5 % level are colored (two-sided t test).
  • Fig. 3. Ensemble mean of post-volcanic surface temperature (a, b), sea level pressure (c, d) and precipitation (e, f) anomalies, showing the difference between VOLC (4 years: 1810, 1816, 1832 and 1836) and CTRL1780 (3× 60 = 180 years) in the JJA (left panels) and DJF (right panels) season. For all plots, dashed areas show significant changes in a 10 % t test (two-sided t test).
  • Fig. 4. (a) Ensemble means of detrended anomalies of experiments ALL, VOLC and BU relative to CTRL1780 for (a) global 2 m temperatures; (b) global ocean heat content (OHC) of the upper ocean (first 100 m in depth); (c) SH 2 m temperatures; (d) NH 2 m temperatures. For all experiments, the envelope shows the min/max values. Red vertical lines highlight the years in which a volcanic eruption occurred.
  • Fig. 5. Ensemble mean of detrended global ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies relative to CTRL1780, plotting technique analog to Stenchikov et al. (2009). For (a)–(c) the black curve shows global total OHC (0–6020 m), the green curve global OHC of the top 300 m, the blue curve global OHC of the layers below 300 m (300–6020 m). (a) For ALL; (b) BU; (c) VOLC. (d) Ensemble mean of local OHC anomalies relative to CTRL1780 for the layers between 0 and 100 m in depth for the northern Pacific, Bering Sea region. Envelope shows the min/max values. Red vertical lines highlight the years in which a volcanic eruption occurred.
  • Fig. 6. Top panel: total solar irradiance from the Shapiro et al. (2011) forcing. Lower panel: model comparison with five NH temperature reconstructions of the IPCC AR4 (averaged). Magenta, green and orange lines are model curves, the grey envelope the composite of a range of tree ring-based reconstructions. Magenta thick: ensemble mean of NH temperatures (ALL-NH). Green: same, but for the VOLC experiment (VOLC-NH). Orange: same, but for the BU experiment (BU-NH). Grey region: envelope of the five NH temperature reconstructions plotted in Fig. S2 in the Supplement. Smoothing of the model results: Gaussian 3 years FWHM, centered on year 1. Red vertical dashed lines highlight the years in which a volcanic eruption occurred.

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Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., … Peter, T. (2014). Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum. Climate of the Past, 10(3), 921–938. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014

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