Methane dynamics in warming tundra of Northeast European Russia

Abstract

Methane (CH 4) fluxes were investigated in a subarctic Russian tundra site in a multi-approach study combining plot scale data, ecosystem scale eddy covariance (EC) measurements and fine resolution land cover classification scheme for regional upscaling. The flux data as measured by the two independent techniques resulted in a seasonal (May–October 2008) cumulative CH 4 emission of 2.4 (EC) and 3.7 g CH 4 m −2 (manual chambers) for the source area representative of the footprint of the EC instruments. Upon upscaling for the entire study region of 98.6 km 2, the chamber measured flux data yielded a regional flux estimate of 6.7 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1. Our upscaling efforts accounted for the large spatial variability in the distribution of the various land cover types (LCTs) predominant at our study site. In particular, wetlands with emissions ranging from 34 to 53 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 were the most dominant CH 4 emitting surfaces. Emissions from thermokarst lakes were an order of magnitude lower, while the rest of the landscape (mineral tundra) was a weak sink for atmospheric methane. Vascular plant cover was a key factor in explaining the spatial variability of CH 4 emissions among wetland types, as indicated by the positive correlation of emissions with the leaf area index (LAI). As elucidated through a stable isotope analysis, the plant transport was the dominant CH 4 release pathway that discriminates against heavier δ 13 C-CH 4. The methane released from wetlands was lighter than that in the surface porewater and δ 13 C in the emitted CH 4 correlated with the vascular plant cover (LAI) implying that the plant-mediated CH 4 release dominates. A mean value of δ 13 C obtained here for the emitted CH 4, −68.2 ± 2.0 ‰, is within the range of values from other wetlands, thus reinforcing the use of inverse modeling tools to better constrain the CH 4 budget. Based on the IPCC A1B emission scenario, a temperature increase of 7 °C has been predicted for the tundra region of European Russia by the end of the 21st Century. A regional warming of this magnitude will have profound effects on the permafrost distribution leading to considerable changes in the regional landscape with a potential for an increase in the areal extent of methane emitting wet surfaces. We estimate that a projected increase in air temperature of 7 °C with a mere 10 % associated increase in the combined areal coverage of willow stands, fens and lakes in the region will lead to a 51 % higher amount of CH 4 being emitted into the atmosphere by the end of this century.