The Relationship Between Welfare Spending and Imprisonment

Abstract

Introduction We present here a brief outline of findings from our research, which explores the relationship between welfare expenditure and levels of punishment. We begin by examining research on welfare spending and imprisonment rates across US states and replicate this work using data from 18 countries, including the United Kingdom. The results show that welfare provision relates significantly to penal policy and practice, as measured by the scale of imprisonment, and indicate that welfare cutbacks imply penal expansionism. Put simply, we find that countries that spend a greater proportion of GDP on welfare have lower imprisonment rates and that this relationship has become stronger over the last 15 years. The consistency in these findings across the United States and the other 17 countries studied makes it difficult to believe that this relationship is simply accidental or coincidental. We argue that this finding is extremely important from a policy perspective. It indicates that a country that increases the amount of its GDP spent on welfare sees a relatively lower rate of increase or a greater decline in its imprisonment rate than in the past. Welfare expenditure is an indicative measure of the strength of a welfare state, but it must also be viewed in context. Increased spending on welfare will not automatically reduce imprisonment – the organisation and delivery of welfare also plays an important role. For example, further research is required to understand fully whether increases in public service expenditure via Private Finance Initiatives have the same effect as previous regimes of welfare spending. Above all, our data imply that a substantial welfare state is increasingly a principal, if not the main protection against the resort to mass imprisonment in the era of globalization.