Post-war Development Energy Scenarios for Ukraine

Abstract

The systemic shock provoked by the Russian invasion created a radical discontinuity in the national development policies of Ukraine. This research examines the state of energy policy and the consequences of the ongoing war on plausible decarbonisation scenarios. Ukraine’s commitment to decarbonization was firmly established before 2022, and the National Energy Strategy 2050 already aimed at a substantial 65% reduction in emissions of the economy in comparison to 1990. The war however, precipitated the need to adjust these targets and policy instrument to the current realities. For that, we conducted quantitative research to identify the most GHG intensive regions and sectors and related these to their Gross Regional Product and population. We found out that Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Ivano-Frankivsk turn out be the most critical regions that require special consideration—so for the later region, we also identify particular decarbonization pathways. Our research shows that the Ukrainian war not only unveiled the inherent vulnerabilities of heavily centralised, carbon-dependent systems, but also can lead to the acceleration of non-linear structural low-carbon energy transformations more resilient to global change and systemic interdependences.