Application of monte carlo method in hydraulic structures safety assessment in Vietnam conditions

Abstract

Vietnam is a country with many dams but most of these works are designed according to the Determined design method and analysis of safety factors, while the Random design method and the reliability analysis have become popular in the world for many years. The paper introduces the method of calculating reliability for hydraulic structures according to the Monte Carlo method or the level III random design method. Based on the method of calculating the reliability of dams according to the Monte Carlo, the authors applied to calculate the reliability of the main dam of Phu Ninh-Quang Nam irrigation reservoirs. Compare with the reliability calculations at level II and have recommendations applied to all levels of construction in Vietnam conditions: with important dams will be calculated according to the problem of level III, with less important works of regions, calculated according to level II.