Energy and emission modelling for climate change mitigation from road transportation in the middle east: A case study from Lebanon

Abstract

Road transportation worldwide is undergoing a rapid transition to more sustainable alternative fuel vehicle technologies as an effective means of dealing with climate change and related challenges. This chapter provides an assessment framework and a case study of the potential savings in energy use and CO 2 emissions from alternative fuel vehicle technologies compared to existing conventional vehicles, including the dynamic modelling of different mitigation strategies at the fleet level. The case study is done in an urban area of Lebanon’s Greater Beirut Area which has one of the most unsustainable road transport systems in the region. The framework highlights the need to account for real-world driving and weather conditions since poor roads, congested traffic, and extreme weather conditions common in the developing countries of the Middle East can reduce the benefits of these vehicles. Results show that introducing micro-hybrid vehicles to make up 35% of the fleet in 2040 reduces energy use and emissions by 19% compared to the business-as-usual scenario, thereby stabilizing growth trends in 2040 as compared to 2010 figures. The addition of 10% hybrid electric vehicles by 2040 to the first strategy leads to 11% additional savings compared to 2010. This shows the need to incentivize cleaner fuel vehicles and to systematically explore additional strategies for reducing energy consumption and emissions in road transportation.