Estimating modal shift of home-based work trips due to the development of Kochi metro and reduction in fuel consumption and emissions

Abstract

Kochi, the commercial hub of Kerala, is already experiencing urban growth pressures. The city is most congested during peak hours, in which home-based work trips and school trips are the main contributors. For the upcoming years, the travel demand is expected to shoot-up. Road-based public transport, cannot meet this demand. So government introduced a light metro system in the city. As this is the first metro rail system in Kerala, attitude of the people towards this new development is ambiguous. This work aims to study the commuter’s mode-choice behaviour towards the metro rail System. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data on the current mode used by the commuters, travel details and the socio-economic characteristics of commuters, which are the major factors influencing the mode choice. A willingness to shift survey was also included in the questionnaire to know the preference of shift to metro. Stated preference (SP) approach was used in the study to frame different scenarios. Binary logit models are developed to examine the overall probable shifts of work trips from the presently used mode to metro. Separate binary logit models are developed to study the shift from two-wheeler and bus users to metro. From this study, a set of influencing factors, with reliable and predictable data base, to explain the variation in modal shift behaviour has been identified. Overall and mode-wise probable shift from existing mode to metro, possible reduction in the vehicle emission and percentage fuel cost savings have been estimated. Elasticity analyses on travel time and travel cost of metro were also done.