Climate Change Impact on Annual and Monthly Rainfall on Bhadar River Basin, India using Linear Regression and Innovative Trend Method

Abstract

Bhadar is one of the major rivers of Kathaiwar (Saurashtra) peninsula in Gujarat, India. It originates near Vaddi (Aniali Village) about 26 km north – west of Jasdan in Rajkot district of the state of Gujarat, India at an elevation of 261 m above mean sea level. Impact assessment of climate change over Bhadar river basin is carried out using two statistical methods of Trend Analysis i.e. linear Regression, and Innovative Trend method. Effect of climate change on annual rainfall and monthly rainfall are studied. Results show that there is an overall increase in annual rainfall trend in Bhadar river basin/catchment area at all stations except one station. The results for monthly rainfall show that the rainfall in the month of July and September shows increasing trend at all stations. The results obtained using Linear Regression and Innovative Trend method are found to be consistent.