The Traffic Light Approach: Indicators and Algorithms to Identify Covid-19 Epidemic Risk Across Italian Regions

Abstract

With the beginning of the autumn-winter season, Italy experienced an increase of SARS-CoV-2 cases, requiring the Government to adopt new restrictive measures. The national surveillance system in place defines 21 key process and performance indicators addressing for each Region/Autonomous Province: (i) the monitoring capacity, (ii) the degree of diagnostic capability, investigation and contact tracing, and (iii) the characteristics of the transmission dynamics as well as the resilience of health services. Overall, the traffic light approach shows a collective effort by the Italian Government to define strategies to both contain the spread of COVID-19 and to minimize the economic and social impact of the epidemic. Nonetheless, on what principles color-labeled risk levels are assigned on a regional level, it remains rather unclear or difficult to track.