Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hepatitis a Virus Infection Arising from the Consumption of Fermented Clams in South Korea

Abstract

This study estimated the risk of hepatitis A virus (HAV) foodborne illness outbreaks through the consumption of fermented clams in South Korea. HAV prevalence in fermented clams was obtained from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety Report, 2019. Fermented clam samples (2 g) were inoculated with HAV and stored at −20–25 °C. Based on the HAV titer (determined using plaque assay) in fermented clams according to storage, the Baranyi predictive models provided by Combase were applied to describe the kinetic behavior of HAV in fermented clams. The initial estimated HAV contamination level was −3.7 Log PFU/g. The developed predictive models revealed that, when the temperature increased, the number of HAV plaques decreased. The Beta-Poisson model was chosen for determining the dose–response of HAV, and the simulation revealed that there was a 6.56 × 10−11/person/day chance of contracting HAV foodborne illness by eating fermented clams. However, when only regular consumers of fermented clams were assumed as the population, the probability of HAV foodborne illness increased to 8.11 × 10−8/person/day. These results suggest that, while there is a low likelihood of HAV foodborne illness from consuming fermented clams across the country, regular consumers should be aware of the possibility of foodborne illness.