Impact of climate change on cotton production in Pakistan: An ARDL bound testing approach

Abstract

In the recent times agriculture sector has been considered as one of the most affected sectors by climate change. Climatic factors that have direct influence on agricultural productivity are: rise in temperature, heavy rainfall, precipitation, floods and drought etc. This paper has empirically examined the effect of climatic variations on cotton productivity in Pakistan. In order to evaluate the climate change, three climatic variables (rainfall, max. temp and min temp) and three non-climatic variables (technology, fertilizer and area) had been used for analysis. Historical climate data from 1981-2015, was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department, while data of Technology, fertilizer and cotton area has been gathered from Pakistan Economic Survey. ARDL bound testing econometric approach was employed to gauge the empirical estimates. The outcomes of cointegration shows that all climate variables have statistically substantial effect on cotton productivity in Pakistan. Both rain-fall and maximum temperature have positive effects while minimum temperature has negative effects on cotton production. Furthermore, both fertilizer and area have positive impact on cotton production. long run cointegrating relationship holds among climate change variables and cotton productivity. mitigating negative impressions of climate change requires strategies focusing on the adaptation of climate resistant cultivars.