The impact of labor force aging on agricultural total factor productivity of farmers in China: implications for food sustainability

Abstract

Introduction: The rapid aging of the labor force has serious implications for socioeconomic development and poses challenges to food sustainability. Existing studies have focused on the impact of labor force aging on land productivity, but little attention has been paid to the comprehensive capacity of agricultural production, namely the total factor productivity of agriculture. Methods: We estimate the impact of labor force aging on total factor productivity in agriculture using data from 170,506 sample farm households from the National Fixed Point Survey data from 2003 to 2020. We estimate the results using a panel fixed effects approach and mitigate the endogeneity problem using an instrumental variables approach to ensure the robustness of the estimates. Results and discussion: The results show that labor force aging has an adverse effect on the agricultural total factor productivity of farm households and remains robust after addressing endogeneity and substituting explanatory variables. The aging effect shows significant heterogeneity across different food functional areas with different types of farm households. The negative impact of labor force aging on total factor productivity in agriculture is mainly concentrated in the main grain-production and grain-producing and marketing-balanced areas. We also find that the negative impact of labor force aging is more significant among large-scale farmers. The mechanism analysis finds that the aging of the labor force adversely affects the agricultural total factor productivity by inhibiting technological progress and reducing the efficiency of agricultural resource allocation. These insights, when considered in the light of global trends towards agricultural labor aging, suggest that policy interventions aimed at promoting technological adoption, enhancing resource allocation efficiency, and supporting the transitioning of older farmers may hold promise for maintaining food sustainability and addressing the challenges posed by an aging agricultural workforce in numerous developing nations.