Regional Sex Ratio and the Dissolution of Relationships in Germany

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse the connection between relationship stability and attractive alternatives, which is stressed in micro-level theories on union dissolution. The stability of relationships can be influenced by the availability of alternative partners, whereby the probability that a person will meet these alternatives is determined by the distribution of individuals with specific characteristics in the contextual setting the person is embedded in. Research on this macro–micro connection is sparse in Europe. The availability of alternatives on the contextual level is operationalised through varying sex ratios between and within German districts. The estimation of the union dissolution risk as a function of individual and contextual predictors is based on a discrete-time multilevel event-history analysis using pairfam data and data from official statistics. The main hypothesis, which asserts that there is a positive connection between unbalanced sex ratios and union dissolution, is not supported. This result calls into question the robustness of previous findings.