Prentice–williams–peterson models in the assessment of the influence of the characteristics of the unemployed on the intensity of subsequent registrations in the labour office

Abstract

In the analysis of the duration of socio-economic phenomena, events subject to the study may occur more than once. They are called recurring or multiple events. Most analyses focus only on the first event and ignore the next one. In many cases, the risk of the next event occurring depends on the previous events. The aim of the paper is to analyse risk of subsequent registrations in the labour office depending on the characteristics of the unemployed (gender, age, education, seniority) using Prentice–Williams–Peterson’s conditional models. Two types of models for multidimensional survival data were used in this paper. The first one (PWP-CP model) considers the time until the event occurs from the beginning of observation, and the second one (PWP-GP model) considers the time from the previous event. The basis of these models is the stratified Cox proportional hazards model, in which the strata are created by subsequent events. These models are an extension of the classical approach to survival analysis. In the study, individual data of persons registered in the Poviat Labour Office in Szczecin were used. The research revealed that age and education influenced the risk of multiple registrations in the office, while gender and seniority did not have a significant impact. In a similar way, the characteristics of the unemployed affected the risk of first return to office. However, they did not affect subsequent registrations.