Multi-scenario flexible contract coordination for determining the quantity of emergency medical suppliers in public health events

Abstract

Determining the optimal number of emergency medical suppliers for the government to contract with in the context of public health events poses a challenging problem. Having too many suppliers can result in increased costs, while having too few suppliers can potentially expose the government to supply risks. Striking the right balance between these two factors is crucial in ensuring efficient and reliable emergency response and management. This study examines the process of determining the appropriate number of suppliers in emergency medical supply chain. By incorporating option contracts and employing the total cost of government procurement as the objective function, the analysis focuses on the impact of relevant parameters on the optimal number of suppliers. Furthermore, the study investigates the optimal supplier quantities under different types of option contracts. The proposed decision model for determining the optimal number of suppliers in this paper considers three key factors: the supply risk associated with emergency medical supplies, the reserve cost of government procurement, and the responsiveness of emergency medical supplies. Additionally, a method is introduced for selecting the quantity of emergency medical suppliers based on flexible contracts. This approach offers a scientific foundation for the government to effectively address the challenge of supplier quantity selection when faced with risks related to shortages, expiration, and the combination of both.