Evaluation of energy demand and air emissions by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model in transport sector of Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Air pollution is an emerging environmental issue in major cities of Pakistan. One of the major causes of air pollution is urban transportation. The purpose of this chapter is to provide a critical overview of air pollution due to transport emissions and evaluation of energy demand for this sector as well. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used to present existing scenario and future projections of energy capacity in transport sector of Punjab province of Pakistan. Diesel- and gasoline-based vehicular emissions and their growth rates in the next 30 years were anticipated according to current situation. Solar energy and biodiesel along with other alternative scenarios were proposed to avoid air emissions and shortfall of diesel fuel for passenger transport in near future. The results indicated that the number of vehicles and vehicular emissions were increasing with increasing population size leading to high energy consumption. The growth rate of vehicles resulted as 15.6 % with population growth rate of 1.82 % per annum, the highest growth rate of motorcycles was 10 % followed by 8.2 % of cars. The alternative scenarios given in this research will not only reduce pollutants in the air but also provide best replaceable cost-effective fuel for demand fulfillment.