Modelling the impact of institutional environment on key macroeconomic indicators

Abstract

The characteristics of the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators are important indicators of the state and prospects of the country's economy as a whole. Interest in the study of macroeconomic dynamics is ensured by the uneven growth rates of the main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, consumption, investment) of different countries, as well as the growing lag of the poorest regions of the world from the leading ones in terms of economic development. Existing studies do not fully explain the differences in the behavior of macroeconomic indicators in countries whose economies are comparable for most of the fundamental factors considered. Recently, institutional factors have been used to explain these differences. The insufficient level of development of institutions limits economic growth; this problem is especially relevant in modern countries. Part of the resources is spent on protecting property rights, on overcoming barriers associated with corruption. To overcome the lag in institutional development, it is necessary to identify the mechanism of the influence of institutional parameters on macroeconomic indicators and assess the feasibility of improving various institutions from the point of view of further economic growth. The proposed approach to forecasting macroeconomic indicators taking into account the main components of the group of institutional variables can be applied directly in the process of building forecasts. It is also worth noting the proposed method of testing the hypothesis of a better forecast, which allows you to get results that are independent of the specification of the model.