Addition of Chromosome 17 Polysomy and HER2 Amplification Status Improves the Accuracy of Clinicopathological Factor-Based Progression Risk Stratification and Tumor Grading of Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer

Abstract

Progression of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) to muscle-invasive disease (MIBC) significantly worsens life expectancy. Its risk can be assessed by clinicopathological factors according to international guidelines. However, additional molecular markers are needed to refine and improve the prediction. Therefore, in the present study, we aimed to predict the progression of NMIBCs to MIBC by assessing p53 expression, polysomy of chromosome 17 (Chr17) and HER2 status in the tissue specimens of the tumors of 90 NMIBC patients. Median follow-up was 77 months (range 2–158). Patients with Chr17 polysomy or HER2 gene amplification had a higher rate of disease progression (hazard ratio: 7.44; p < 0.001 and 4.04; p = 0.033, respectively; univariate Cox regression). Multivariable Cox regression models demonstrated that the addition of either Chr17 polysomy or HER2 gene amplification status to the European Association of Urology (EAU) progression risk score increases the c-index (from 0.741/EAU/ to 0.793 and 0.755, respectively), indicating that Chr17 polysomy/HER2 amplification status information improves the accuracy of the EAU risk table in predicting disease progression. HER2/Chr17 in situ hybridization can be used to select non-progressive cases not requiring strict follow-up, by reclassifying non-HER2-amplified, non-polysomic NMIBCs from the high- and very high-risk groups of EAU to the intermediate-risk group.