Assessing the influences of future water development projects in Tekeze-Atbara-Setit basin on the Nile River inflow at Aswan, Egypt

Abstract

Study region: The Tekeze-Atbara-Setit (TAS) basin as a portion of the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) in Africa. Study focus: ENB consists of four sub-basins; one of them is the Tekeze-Atbara-Setit basin. TAS basin is subject to future water development projects, including irrigation projects and hydropower dams. Potential impacts of these projects need to be assessed regarding the inflow and hydroelectric generation at Egypt's High Aswan Dam (HAD). New hydrological insights for the region: Two models are coupled offline; The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and HEC-Reservoir Simulation Model (HEC-ResSim). Base-case scenario is created without the expected future projects, in addition to five additional scenarios representing hydropower and irrigation projects. The maximum annual inflow at HAD declines by 1.6 km3 in the hydropower scenarios, while the produced power at HAD descends by 9.5 %. The maximum reduction in the annual inflow for hydropower and irrigation projects scenario at HAD is 4.63 km3 and 35.2 % for power reduction. Finally, the proposed future development project in TAS basin will have negative impacts on the flow, and generated hydropower at HAD in Egypt.