Possibilities and threats of starting the mechanism of import substitution in the AIC in the context of provision of food security

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to study the contradiction of the mechanism of import substitution in the context of provision of food security and to develop recommendations for overcoming it in modern Russia. The authors use the method of SWOT analysis, which allows evaluating advantages and drawbacks of the mechanism of import substitution, as well as opportunities and threats, in the context of provision of national food security. The authors use the method of correlation and regression analysis to evaluate the results of application of import substitution in the modern Russia’s AIC from the point of view of provision of national food security. The key conclusion of this research consists in the fact that the mechanism of import substitution provides wide possibilities for supporting domestic production of the AIC products and brings threats related to limitation of market self-management, which requires flexible application of this mechanism. In modern Russia, the threats of import substitution have not yet emerged, but it is not very effective either. Low innovational activity in the long-term may become a reason for reduction of competitiveness of domestic companies of the AIC. Thus, import will be a serious threat for the Russia’s AIC. In order to prevent this scenario, we recommend using innovational policy with the policy of import substitution in the AIC. This will allow preserving and multiplying the effect that has been achieved due to successful policy of import substitution in Russia.