Vulnerability to severe forms of COVID-19: An intra-municipal analysis in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract

Given the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and the limited tools for orienting interventions in surveillance, control, and clinical care, the current article aims to identify areas with greater vulnerability to severe cases of the disease in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a city characterized by huge social and spatial heterogeneity. In order to identify these areas, the authors prepared an index of vulnerability to severe cases of COVID-19 based on the construction, weighting, and integration of three levels of information: mean number of residents per household and density of persons 60 years or older (both per census tract) and neighborhood tuberculosis incidence rate in the year 2018. The data on residents per household and density of persons 60 years or older were obtained from the 2010 Population Census, and data on tuberculosis incidence were taken from the Brazilian Information System for Notificable Diseases (SINAN). Weighting of the indicators comprising the index used analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the levels of information were integrated via weighted linear combination with map algebra. Spatialization of the index of vulnerability to severe COVID-19 in the city of Rio de Janeiro reveals the existence of more vulnerable areas in different parts of the city's territory, reflecting its urban complexity. The areas with greatest vulnerability are located in the North and West Zones of the city and in poor neighborhoods nested within upper-income parts of the South and West Zones. Understanding these conditions of vulnerability can facilitate the development of strategies to monitor the evolution of COVID-19 and orient measures for prevention and health promotion.