Multifactor forecasting of socioeconomic development of regions

Abstract

The goal of the article is to develop an economic and mathematical model allowing to predict the nature of the socioeconomic development of the Russian regions, with due consideration for the most significant factors that determine its dynamics. An algorithm has been proposed for predicting the growth rate of the gross regional product, including justification of the factors that have both positive and negative impacts on this indicator, as well as the procedure for generating forecast estimates using the Wolfram Mathematica 11 kit. A forecast model of the socioeconomic development of the Lipetsk region, one of the backbone regions in Russia, has been formed. The statistical indicators of the region under study for 2004 – 2017 have been analyzed. The forecast data have been interpreted. The negative factors hindering the further development of the Lipetsk region have been highlighted. The results of the study can be used to develop a strategy, as well as state and regional programs aimed at ensuring and enhancing the sustainability of the socioeconomic development of the Lipetsk region.