Human development index forecasting using exponentially weighted moving average

Abstract

Human Development Index (HDI) is an indicator to see the ruling government achievement, especially in the human development aspect. It was introduced by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in their 1990 report and integrated three basic dimensions of human development, i.e., the ability to lead a long and healthy life, to acquire knowledge, and to achieve a decent standard of living. Indonesia itself was ranked 113 out of 188 UNDP countries and ranked fifth among ASEAN countries for HDI value based on UNDP Human Development Re-port 2016: Human Development for Everyone. In this study, we are trying to forecast Indonesia’s HDI using Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method. EWMA is a popular and widely used method to smooth out random fluctuations. Based on the experiments conducted in 34 provinces in Indonesia, EWMA has been successfully applied to forecast the human development index in Indonesia. It has an average score of MSE and MAPE values at 1.002279153 for MSE and 1.374754513% for MAPE.