Forecasting the Investors’ Escalation of Commitment in PPP Project at Different Project Stages: A Regression Model Based on the Influence of Social Factors

Abstract

In the public-private partnership (PPP) project, social factors are an important reason that leads to the escalation of commitment (EOC) of investors. Firstly, the study identified ten social factors that influence investor’s EOC in PPP projects by literature review. Then, 126 valid data were collected by situational questionnaire, and regression models of social factors that influence investors’ EOC were built at different stages of project completion. Finally, the study constructed the probability model of the investors’ EOC in different stages. It is found that with the progress of the project, investors are more and more inclined to EOC. In different stages, the social factors that play a major role in the investors’ EOC are different. Probability models based on the influence of social factors have good prediction ability. The findings can help engineering managers predict the risk of investor’s EOC in advance and formulate preventive measures in different stages to promote the success of the project.