Fuzzy modeling approach for integrated assessments using cultural theory

Abstract

It has already been noted that predicting societal responses accurately requires the use of a formal model such as cultural theory. A basic belief of cultural theory is that all societies and their underlying worldviews, irrespective of time or place, must be more or less hierarchic, more or less individualistic, more or less egalitarian, or more or less fatalistic. This approach has a potential for cross-temporal and spatial comparisons that makes it a particularly attractive instrument for a study of the human dimensions of global climate change. However, a significant difficulty in the previous attempts for utilizing cultural theory in integrated assessment models (IAMs) has been the inexactness or uncertainty inherent in both IAMs and cultural theory. In this paper we introduce a fuzzy-based modeling approach that makes use of cultural theory in integrated assessment approach to provide a mechanism for understanding the reaction of a populace to environmental policy decisions.