A new scenario framework for equitable and climate-compatible futures

Abstract

This paper demonstrates a modelling approach and scenario framework for global burden-sharing, that foregrounds questions of climate and energy justice. We classify 134 countries into four development categories based on thirteen indicators. Using the quadratic plateau model, we estimate that an energy threshold of 94 GJ and an income threshold of USD 28,500 are necessary for meeting sustained levels of development in health, education, and infrastructure. We construct baseline scenarios for convergence to these and other threshold values drawn from the literature. Emissions constraints are then imposed in the form of the remaining carbon budget corresponding to the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement to assess the degree of energy-emissions and energy-GDP decoupling required to meet them. Our results show that limiting warming to 1.5°C requires higher effort across all regions, with the global effort remaining similar across scenarios. However, the distribution of the global effort across development categories varies significantly, depending on whether energy and climate equity are considered. The mitigation burden for the highest development category is almost six times higher if climate equity is considered. In contrast, the effort required by the least developed category is doubled if climate equity is compromised.