Two Time Point Analysis of the Change in Risk and Aging Factors for Major Cancers: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study in China

Abstract

Objective. To quantify the change in risk and aging factors with a two time point analysis for major cancers to assess supportive strategies. Methods. The 2004 and 2015 mortality statistics in China were accessed. The standardized mortality rates of the two periods were used to calculate the ratio of change (RC) value to assess the risk of death associated with time (social development with time) for cancers. The role of age in mortality with time was evaluated by the interaction between time and age using a Poisson regression. Results. In ascending order of RC, the factors were uterus; other malignant neoplasms; esophagus; stomach; skin; liver; leukemia; "lip, oral cavity, and pharynx"; bladder; "colon and rectum"; breast; prostate; lung; ovary; pancreas; "lymphoid, hematopoietic, and related tissue"; and cervix cancers. According to their location on the scatter diagram, the 17 neoplasms could be divided into three groups, comprising undeveloped cancers (including four cancers), developed cancers (including three cancers), and cancers insensitive to social development. Unexpectedly, about 60% (as assessed by type of cancer) and two-thirds (as assessed by constituent ratio of death from all cancers) of cancers did not change with time. Conclusions. Most cancers may be insensitive to social development. Internal factors, including aging, may be a key factor for the occurrence of cancer.