Modelling the Potential Impact of the Application of Environmentally Friendly Transport Applied in Last-Mile Delivery on the National Economy: The Case of Latvia

Abstract

Green logistics or greener technologies in logistics compared to the current are widely discussed and promoted in the European Union (EU) level and national level energy, environmental, transport, economic recovery, economic transformation policies and initiatives. However, a limited amount of quantitative studies and report covers both impacts on specific sectors or industries and national level impact. Two development scenarios on technology application effects are modelled with input-output model for Latvia’s economy obtaining results for 64 products of economic activity (NACE Rev2), and additional regional development examined (NUTS 3 disaggregation). The modelling results claim that if more land transport services (+10%), postal and courier services (+10%), and hence electricity (+10%), are demanded, but less warehousing and support services for transportation (−5%) due to digital solutions and more efficient technologies then the national economic output increase by 0.8%, amid aggregated sectors the largest impact is on wholesale (+1.7%) and industry (+1.3%) and regionally impact is between +0.85% (in Pieriga region) and 0.72% (in Vidzeme). Results on relatively noticeable demand decrease for petroleum products (−3%) and less air transport services due to emissions and replacement with land transport and glocalization (−2%), modelled impact is +0.5%. Results are highly sensitive on scenario assumptions. Companies and policies are tackling different areas; only identified are modelled.