Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting ongoing pregnancy in single vitrified-warmed blastocyst embryo transfer cycles

Abstract

Introduction: The global adoption of the “freeze-all strategy” has led to a continuous increase in utilization of single vitrified-warmed blastocyst embryo transfer (SVBT) owing to its clinical effectiveness. Accurate prediction of clinical pregnancy is crucial from a patient-centered perspective. However, this remains challenging, with inherent limitations due to the absence of precise and user-friendly prediction tools. Thus, this study primarily aimed to develop and assess a nomogram based on quantitative clinical data to optimize the efficacy of personalized prognosis assessment. Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of ongoing pregnancy data from 658 patients with infertility who underwent SVBT at our center between October 17, 2017, and December 18, 2021. Patients were randomly assigned to the training (n=461) or validation (n=197) cohort for nomogram development and testing, respectively. A nomogram was constructed using the results of the multivariable logistic regression (MLR), which included clinical covariates that were assessed for their association with ongoing pregnancy. Results: The MLR identified eight significant variables that independently predicted ongoing pregnancy outcomes in the study population. These predictors encompassed maternal physiology, including maternal age at oocyte retrieval and serum anti-Müllerian hormone levels; uterine factors, such as adenomyosis; and various embryo assessment parameters, including the number of fertilized embryos, blastocyst morphology, blastulation day, blastocyst re-expansion speed, and presence of embryo string. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in our prediction model was 0.675 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.622–0.729) and 0.656 (95% CI, 0.573–0.739) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, indicating good discrimination performance in both cohorts. Conclusions: Our individualized nomogram is a practical and user-friendly tool that can provide accurate and useful SVBT information for patients and clinicians. By offering this model to patients, clinical stakeholders can alleviate uncertainty and confusion about fertility treatment options and enhance patients’ confidence in making informed decisions.