Future forest trends: Can we build on demographically based forecasts?

Abstract

The question addressed in this chapter is: can a simple model that relates income growth to demographic change contribute to an understanding of the challenges that the forestry sector will be facing in the coming decades? Per capita income is interesting because of its impact on the ecological footprints of various societies. The exact relationship between per capita income and energy demand, raw material use, or various types of consumption can shift over time, but this does not change the fact that per capita income growth is a major factor underlying many social and environmental trends. Looking more closely at how income growth correlates with demographic change, therefore, provides a good starting point for discussing future forest trends. An income forecast as such does not constitute a forest scenario but will indicate the important future trends very likely to influence future forest scenarios.