Time Series Analysis and Modeling of Monthly Rainfall in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Managing of water resources is an important future issue. Modeling is fundamental in preparation and organization of water resource system. Forecasting of occasions request identify proper models to be used in this process. Water is the main living source on earth. The most common and fundamental source of water on earth supporting the survival of the majority of life forms is Rainfall. Time arrangement investigation which incorporates modeling and estimating constitutes a instrument of foremost significance with reference to a wide extend of logical purposes in meteorology (e.g. precipitation, stickiness, temperature, sun powered radiation, surges and drafts). The show work applies the Box-Jenkins approach, utilizing SARIMA (Regular Autoregressive Coordinates Moving Normal) demonstrate is utilized to perform brief term estimates of month to month time arrangement such as precipitation. Modeling the past watched precipitation time arrangement values which result in utilized to anticipate long run amounts in agreement to the past. The demonstrate is tried by confirming the past precipitation information. In turn, the research produces a solid future figure. This show is assessed by implies of the AIC-, BIC-, and SBC- demonstrate.