Research on Marine Ecological Carrying Capacity of Ningbo City in China Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

In order to quantitatively analyze the comprehensive impact of population growth, economic development, and environmental pollution on marine ecology, a system dynamics (SD) model was constructed to evaluate and predict the marine ecological carrying capacity (MECC) of Ningbo city, China. Population, gross domestic product, chemical oxygen demand, and marine economic development were selected as the influencing factors of Ningbo MECC. Using the established SD model, the current situation and development forecast of Ningbo MECC from 2012 to 2023 were simulated and analyzed. A consistency test showed that the difference between the simulated value and historical data was within 5%, and the data were consistent in reflecting the evolution of the actual system with high credibility and effective simulation. The results indicated that the model could objectively reflect the relationship between marine ecology, economic development, and population growth. According to the prediction by the SD model, the MECC index would slightly rise year by year under the current development mode, while it would be still below 1.0 by 2023. By reducing the economic growth rate and increasing the pollutant treatment rate, the goal of improving MECC could be effectively achieved.