The development of renewable energy industry under renewable portfolio standards: From the perspective of provincial resource differences

Abstract

A low-carbon energy policy is an effective measure for promoting the development of renewable energy(RE). China has introduced renewable portfolio standards(RPS) and voluntary subscription for tradable green certificates(TGCs), but the market response is not significant. China's electricity trading functions at provincial-level regions, and there are differences in resources between the provinces. New policies need to consider the characteristics of each province to reduce market implementation risk for introduction and implementation. Therefore, based on the provincial characteristics of energy resource endowment in China, we construct a system dynamics(SD) model of the coupling of the RE market, consumption above quota(CAQ), and TGC market based on the structure of the sending-end grid(SG) and receiving-end grid(RG). Three types of TGC models were designed based on the scope of the TGC market. Finally, the impact of policy parameters such as the RPS target, inter-provincial transmission capacity, TGC validity period, and technology cost on the development of RE industries in both SG and RG was analyzed. The results show that the TGC market to be developed independently in various provinces in the initial stage and later expanded into a unified market. Increased RPS requirements, increased inter-provincial transmission capacity, and lower RE costs can enhance policy implementation.