Scenarios for land use in Europe: agro-ecological options within socio-economic boundaries

Abstract

An eco-regional approach to research is called for to address emerging problems related to agricultural production and the environment. In agro-ecological analyses information can be gathered on constraints to and possibilities for agriculture in its physical and socioeconomic environment. Examples of application of this approach are still scarce. In this paper an example is demonstrated that deals with the methodology of exploring future possibilities for land-based agriculture in the European Union. To that end, future technical possibilities of primary production are confronted with a number of objectives relating to regional employment, pesticide and fertilizer use, and total costs. The technical possibilities are derived from regional production potentials of different indicator crops that have been assessed with the aid of a crop growth simulation model. In an interactive multiple goal linear programming model procedure, four scenarios of optimal land use are calculated, considering four distinct political priority settings (free market, current EU policy, nature/landscape conservation and environmental protection objective scenarios). Results of the study have been published in a report by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, an independent advisory body to the Dutch Government. In a public debate following the publication of the report, several different groups discussed the usefulness of this type of analysis. The initial reaction to the study was somewhat reserved, because this type of exploration of the future gives rather different results than the more usual studies which rely on extrapolated trends. However, in the discussions that followed, the complementarity of both approaches has been accepted.