Climate Change Impact Modeling on Citrus Yield

Abstract

According to many scientific institutions, rising temperature and precipitation decrease, in addition to the increase of extreme weather events, will have a significant effect on agriculture in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. The citrus sector in Morocco plays a significant socio-economic role. It is the most important source of income creating more than 16 million working days annually and ensures an average production of two million Tons per year (2,275,400 T in 2018). The development of this crop is achieved at the expense of a resource that will become scarce in the long term. Indeed, water is an important production factor in agriculture. Its availability, or its shortage, can lead to a successful harvest, or a decrease in yields, or even its failure. According to the FAO, irrigation basically doubles agricultural yields and the number of crops grown in a year. However, climate change will have a drastic impact on irrigated crops over the coming years, citrus among others. In order to support the agricultural sector towards better risk management, this chapter describes climate variation, analyzes the value chain of citrus in Morocco, and performs a statistical analysis of the impact of climate change on the evolution of citrus areas and yields.