Do the fastest open-water swimmers have a higher speed in middle- and long-distance pool swimming events?

Abstract

Background: It has been shown that the fastest open-water swimmers (OW-swimmers) increase significantly the speed in the last split of the open-water events. The aim of the present work was to determine if the fastest OW-swimmers have a higher speed in the middle- and long-distance pool swimming events, and to develop a multivariate model that can predict the medalist group in the 10-km competition. Methods: A total of 484 athletes (252-males and 232-females) were included in the analysis. Swimmers were divided into four groups based on their finishing position in the competition. For each swimmer, the absolute best performance (PB) of 200, 400, 800 and 1500-meter in long course, the seasonal best performance (SPB) obtained before the open-water events and critical velocity (CV) were analyzed. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was used to detect significant differences between groups and discriminant analysis was used to predict a grouping variable. Results: All the variables analyzed were significantly different between groups (p < 0.001). The first discriminant function correctly classified 50% of the overall female and male swimmers. Conclusion: Fastest OW-swimmers have a higher speed in middle- and long-distance pool swimming events. Further studies should include different anthropometric and physiological variables to increase the accuracy of classification.