Analysis of fuzzyness in spatial variation of real estate market: Some Italian case studies

Abstract

The paper shows a method aiming at giving a measure of fuzzyness referring to the change of real estate value from an area to another one belonging to the same urban context. This measure is based on Munda's "Semantic distance" (1997). Such measure is considered helpful to validate the traditional subdivision of the city by the Italian Cadastral System in the so-called "cadastral census section". The paper starts explaining the cadastral approach that guides the partition of an urban area, according to the hypothesis of homogeneity of the real estate values and of the physical context. After the explanation of the partition of Italian Cadastre, the concept of semantic distance is introduced, as measure of the difference among estate values referring to the cadastral sections, that in this case are considered as well fuzzy variables. The semantic distance is compared with the expected real estate value; starting from such comparison it is possible to estimate a degree of uncertainty in the variation of values area by area of the urban context. The case studies refer to the biggest Southern Italian metropolitan areas, Naples, Bari and Palermo. The work is due to a joint effort. In detail, C. Mariano wrote the first paragraph and C.M. Torre the second the third and the fourth paragraphs. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.