Ecological niche models and the geography of biological invasions: A review and a novel application

Abstract

Invasive species are a threat to Earth's natural ecological systems [1], and increasing global commerce likely will intensify the problem by transporting greater numbers of potential invaders between regions. Preventing the introduction and establishment of invasive species is generally a better strategy than eradication, but to prevent invasions effectively, managers must have a priori knowledge of which species are likely to become invasive and which regions are likely to be invaded. Given their high economic and ecological costs, there is an urgent need for a system that accurately can predict invasions. However, despite decades of effort, the desire to develop invasion biology into a truly predictive science remains unrealized [2]. © 2005 Birkhäuser Verlag.