Modeling potential consequences of connected and automated vehicle to future travel behaviors and patterns changes: A fuzzy cognitive map approach

Abstract

The authors examined changes that are likely to affect transportation behaviors in the future, developed a “fuzzy cognitive map” (FCM) of the relationships, and used the FCM model to investigate the effects of those relationships. This new FCM method enables modeling the potential consequences of new technologies and services using a variant of the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach, which enables problems involving imprecise and uncertain information to be modeled. Significant modifications to the standard FCM approach were made to address deficiencies found in applying the standard approach. The new approach retains some basic FCM characteristics, but it deviates substantially in a number of ways as well. It has been found that this produces well-behaved models that can be explained in common-sense terms, be easily configured, run many scenarios quickly, and used to analyze scenarios of disruptive change. The results of the study show that FCM models offer a promising method for transportation planners to enhance their ability to reason about system effects when quantitative information is limited and uncertain. More specifically, the results provide some initial guidance on the potential impacts of disruptive changes on future travel, which may help in targeting limited research funds on the most consequential potential changes.