Forecasting land-use changes due to coastal city development on the peri-urban area in Makassar City, Indonesia

Abstract

As one of the urban areas in Indonesia, Makassar City has been experiencing massive expansion during the past decades, resulting in land-use changes and structures in the surrounding peri-urban areas. This study examines the land-use changes and socio-economic characteristics in Makassar City since 2001, then generates a projection of land-use changes of the next decade (the year 2031) in peri-urban areas, particularly in Tamalanrea and Biringkanaya sub-districts. Several Landsat Thematic Mapper imageries and Thematic Maps were used to analyze the land-use changes. In contrast, Cellular Automata-Markov Chain was used to simulate land-use projection and interviews to discover the community's socio-economic characteristics. According to the forecasting results, the area of built-up land was predicted to increase to 11531.4 ha or 67.27% in 2031, while the remaining vacant land (non-built-up land) was predicted to reach 5611.8 ha or 32.73%. A significant increase occurred in the total built area compared to land use conditions in 2016, and this is in line with the projected population growth amounting to 2,027,826 people by 2031. Based on these findings, the direction of coastal city development ought to be modified to restrict open land use. At the same time, spatial policies must be obeyed to prevent the loss of designated zones.