From flood forecasts to rapid assessments of risk and impacts - establishing operational modelling frameworks for coastal flood management at the German Baltic Sea coast

Abstract

The record storm surge of October 2023, which hit the southwestern German Baltic Sea, resulted in significant damages to coastal communities and infrastructure but also demonstrated that the region was prepared and able to avoid loss of lives and other catastrophic impacts. Numerical modelling has been a key tool, utilised for providing information to support coastal flood management, at different levels of planning, for such events. Based on recent research conducted in the Baltic coast region as well as on empirical evidence acquired during the event, we present an operational scheme that utilises modelling tools and frameworks for supporting coastal flood management in the region. In this context, we distinguish between three successive phases of an extreme surge event and propose specific actions for each of these phases, aiming towards the development of an operational framework for managing events of high magnitude for the German Baltic Sea region and beyond.