Improvements of Sea Fog Forecasting Based on CMA-TYM

Abstract

Based on the operational version of the China Meteorological Administration Typhoon Model (CMA-TYM, formerly known as GRAPES_TYM), a series of numerical tests are conducted by optimizing the boundary layer parameterization scheme, vertical resolution, and boundary conditions. Instead of the sea surface temperature (SST) from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, more accurate daily SST data reflecting the daily SST variation are used as the boundary condition. The new SST dataset is capable of representing the key points in the area, including the low coastal SST related to upwelling, the intrusion of the Yellow Sea (YS) Warm Current, and the ocean front between the YS and the East China Sea. An analysis of the performances of two boundary layer parameterization schemes (the Yonsei University scheme and the Medium-Range Forecast scheme) in characterizing turbulent heat exchange reveals that the former can more accurately reflect offshore turbulence and forecast the fog area. By increasing the number of vertical layers of the model to 68 and reducing the height of the bottom layer to approximately 10 m, the model presents a better performance in simulating the rapid formation and dissipation of sea fog. With the above improvements, the equitable threat score (ETS) for the hindcasting of eleven sea fog cases in the spring of 2018 increases by 61%, mainly due to the increase in the correctly forecasted fog area.